Replying to Avatar hh

I always argue that fiat isn't going away because it's simply the most powerful tool States have to achieve total domination over their subjects, and that Bitcoin will, at most, become a reserve and store of wealth asset/commodity. Just like there are many other asset classes.

As to the visions of hyperbitcoinization and a big upset and collapse of the system, I simply don't think they're going to happen. The incumbents will adapt and will capture as much of Bitcoin as they can, as we've already seen with billionaires like Michael Saylor. Others will follow, and in the last stage even central banks will hold a piece. The most recalcitrant and close-minded among the elites who refuse to hop on the Bitcoin wagon will simply miss out and be relegated -- in that asset. There is always some attrition at the top.

The key difference though, is that Bitcoin is probably the first asset class in recent history that hasn't been captured from inception by the incumbent status-quo beneficiaries. It's truly something phenomenal, in that it gives a bunch of nobodies the opportunity to position themselves as holders of a significant portion of this asset, ahead of the incumbents.

The weakest among us will sell to Michael Saylor and Blackrock, or will allow their BTC to be seized by their government. A second portion of us will fail to turn their Bitcoin wealth into real world wealth and, sooner or later, their stack will succumb to attrition, either because they fail to understand that Bitcoin, as a non-yield bearing asset doesn't replace itself when you spend it, or because they fail to use it wisely as collateral and eventually have to liquidate their holdings.

The remainder who learn how to use Bitcoin correctly and wisely, will eventually join the ranks of the world's elite and become the new incumbents themselves.

Yes, my outlook is quite cynical. This is my bleakest vision of what's to come. Kind of the worst case scenario for which I prepare, just in case.

you have omitted some of game theory. States and Companies will deal across border with each other in the currency that the seller will accept.

Sellers have the power. And in cross border situations there is little any central bank can do about it.

It has already happened to Russia. Many of its big companies now pay in Yuan for goods from China, and now take loans in Yuan too. The Rubel (@ 16% interest) is something only the Russian citizens use, to their determent.

When Bitcoin is worth more international trade will drive central banks to hold it. Aware citizens will cash out of their government scams, vis-à-vis Argentinaians into USD.

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That's pretty much what I said, and one of my key points to argue that BTC will never achieve medium of exchange, a.k.a, currency status among retail, which will continue to use fiat. Both because they will be priced out of transacting with BTC by the big economic actors (I repeat: transacting with BTC, not simply buying it), and because States will simply continue to issue fiat and force them to use it.

Even in places like Argentina, the USD is not used for common daily stuff (a.k.a., "buying lattes") but for bigger and longer term transactions. In fact, the USD is rather used for savings, that is, as store of value, as another form of property, which is eventually converted to the local currency when it's time to transact. Just like Bitcoin.

Sadly I agree.

Proof of Violence > Proof of Work.

Except in "black" and international markets.

And talking about black markets, once billionaires, companies and public sector actors adopt BTC, let's see what happens with KYC and AML.

I am stacking as much non-KYC as possible, and mixing as much as possible. But I have no illusions about never having to "come clean" and enjoying my anonymous millionaire status. My hope is that when that time arrives, I will be able to simply move the a jurisdiction that's advantageous and respects my private property as much as possible. In the meantime, it's just as a way to avoid scrutiny and premature confiscation right now, right here.

Read more about:

- ecash

- Ark

- hedgehog custody

- Nostr

Bitcoin will scale to everyone.

None of those are Bitcoin.

Sure, credit (promises) is downstream of bearer assets, e.g. Bitcoin.

Credit provides scalability, speed, and liquidity.

how do you think Bitcoin scales beyond SoV?