Here’s the updated side-by-side BTC cycle chart, now including power law dynamics, doubling time, and how highs/lows fit into long-term price modeling:

Feature 2020–2021 Cycle 2022–2025 Cycle

Cycle Start March 2020 (~$4K) November 2022 (~$15.5K)

Peak Price November 2021 (~$69K) March 2025 (~$109K, current high)

Duration to Peak ~20 months ~29 months (so far)

Total Gain from Bottom ~17x ~7x

Halving Date May 2020 April 2024

Structure Double top (April & Nov 2021) Single clean breakout (so far)

Top Characteristics High retail euphoria ETF-driven, institutional strength

Volume Profile High volatility, retail-driven More consistent, less frothy

Consolidation Behavior Choppy, blow-off tops Rounded tops, stair-step advances

Support Zones Weak after $69K crash $69K now a confirmed strong support

Momentum (TSI/RSI) Overshot with bearish divergence Moderate, rolling off highs

Macro Conditions Post-COVID stimulus, low rates Inflation drag, potential rate cuts

Adoption Events Tesla buys BTC, El Salvador Spot BTC ETFs, sovereign funds interest

Power Law Fit Overshot power law band at top Tracking well within upper band

Log Price Channel Topped above upper channel (~$69K) Near or slightly above midline (~$109K)

Doubling Pattern ~3–6 months per double in late 2020 ~8–10 months per double post-2023

Relative to Power Law Floor $4K vs $270) $15.5K vs $2.2K est.)

Implication Exuberant top = long mean reversion Controlled rise = higher sustainable base

---

Power Law Context:

Bitcoin follows a power law growth curve, with log(price) ~ log(time)^α.

2020–21 cycle spiked above the power law upper bound — unsustainable.

2022–25 cycle is riding closer to the band, suggesting maturing adoption and slower exponential growth.

Doubling slowdown is expected as Bitcoin becomes more liquid, institutional, and widely held.

---

Let me know if you'd like this in CSV, or visualized on a power law chart with the original Woobull-style bands.