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I thought this might be explanatory too

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YODL 3d ago 💬 1

I think we're in agreement on usd being more tied to real world messiness than the pure theoretical "it cancels out" math view. It's all just trading pair bartering at end of day. But the knee jerk cancel out reasoning is close to reality _because_ USD is so liquid and deep across all trading pairs. That's the point of UoA/money, breaking all trades into a simple linear ordering of one denomination. That you say it's a manipulated or bad yardstick is true, but it's consistently flawed across trading pairs, as liquidity and arb ensure it adapts quickly. That's what they teach you in Econ anyway, I'm sure there are examples where this doesn't hold so well, but my little bit of studying told me arb never last long in modern economies, as there are vultures and bots who make sure of it.

In abnormal times, when capital controls (if that's right term) may take place, then we get to see some action.

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Discussion

Hanshan 3d ago 💬 1

if I understand your point correctly,

you feel that because of liquidity there are no structural, social or memetic reasons for US dollars to prefer one of these markets over the other?

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YODL 3d ago 💬 1

I smell a trap, but yes

Hanshan 3d ago 💬 1

no trap, just clarifying 😁

I think there are reasons for US dollars to prefer one asset over another. reasons that are *unique to US dollars* and may not translate if we were denominating prices in a different UOA.

but I think this is probably the crux of what we disagree on 👍

YODL 3d ago 💬 1

If you could make point more concrete, that'd help. Cuz yeah, from just a trading perspective I don't get what you mean by "USD favors" something.

If what I want is buying some good or service right now, then scooping some extra dollars up quickly with arb is the move.

If I'm trying to do that over a prolonged holding period (storing wealth across time), then holding onto gold might make sense... If resistance to gov seizure/censorship, then maybe BTC. Feel like I'm stating the obvious, so once again not sure you're point. I wanna understand, but I don't

Hanshan 3d ago 💬 2

I mean, the obvious answer is regulatory.

if a market is highly regulated and it's difficult for US dollars to move in and out then the friction will naturally cause those dollars to seek a different market.

theres available supply etc.

maturation, do you need to lock up US dollars for a specific time period?

information asymmetry, certain assets are understood better and therefore favored by USD investors.

and there are definitely memetic drives where recent successes are favored regardless of underlying value prop

All markets are different. I don't think treating them as universally equivalent is accurate. these issues are mostly, but not necessarily, unique to the fact that it's US dollars moving around.

if they were priced in something else and it was a different asset moving, then there would be a *different structural context.*

anyway that's what i mean by "USD favors"

thanks for helping me think it through.

and it's related but actually a different conversation, not only are the markets different vis-a-vis USD but I think that treating US dollars once they enter a market as if they were fungible with US dollars in another market is probably a misunderstanding. they may still be called "USD," but they actually behave as a different asset and I'm not sure comparing them to each other is accurate.

but let's just leave that there for now okay? 😅

YODL 3d ago

Will reread and ponder, but this clip I just fumbled my way through making will surely interest you. Check it out!

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YODL 3d ago 💬 1

Rereading I see more what you mean. Simple example, USD dislikes crypto. It takes some doing to buy crypto, you can't just click a button on bank, nor buy it on E*Trade. You have to make a new account on a crypto exchange, yada yada, and then your bank is likely to interfere when they detect "suspicious activity" or the like. So that friction is enough for a lot of people who might dabble to steer clear. At least that was the case prior to ETFs. And back further you had to go to send money to shady Japanese exchange to buy BTC on mtgox (huge friction, and partly why I am not swimming in bitcoins today, as I saw that back in the day and was like "ooohh, that looks shady, no thank you").

The clip I posted minutes ago should interest you. Highlights how currencies and property rights are all smooth and background oiled machines...until they're not.

Hanshan 3d ago 💬 1

yeah exactly.

I suspect the markets are all much more complicated and difficult to evaluate then we can imagine without directly getting involved in them.

it certainly isn't as simple as they're all equal and access is open

YODL 3d ago 💬 1

I hope the clip from podcast is real. Have doubts now. Guess I'll tag nostr:npub13ql75nq8rldygpkjke47y893akh5tglqtqzs6cspancaxktthsusvfqcg7 . Could not find source of clip for Yanis Varoufakis snippets you played on latest pod. Went to your site but source not listed, just the clip recording, unless I missed something

YODL 1h ago 💬 1

Confirmed that clip was AI, they admitted they were had (me too) on subsequent show.

Hanshan 1h ago 💬 1

but why?

what the point exactly?

YODL 1h ago

Can only speculate. Most likely a hot topic so gets clicks/money. Could also be, and this was a theory on more recent No Agenda shown where they admitted they messed up, Russia pushing out a message since apparently a lot of this stuff did in fact happen over a year ago (under reported by msm). Who knows :/

Saw Compte St Germain post earlier that he was having trouble with deep fakes of old lectures from Feynman...