Well... its all hypothetical. But I would guess the closest analogy i can provide is from Fluid dynamics. Flow rate (Q) = flow velocity (v). Cross sectional area (A).

Assuming flow rate is constant (Bitcoin Transaction Demand), Then you are just changing flow velocity (number of transactions per second) . Cross Area (Block size).

Add time to this equation, the number of Liters of water that would pass through a pipe into a bucket, would remain the same, no matter how you change the ratio between v and A. Again assuming Flow rate is constant.

Therefore, Blockchain size (Liters of water in a bucket after 14 years) remains the same.

This all works as long as the flow rate is constant. in the future if demand goes up. you would need a larger A (block size) or faster transactions processing, other wise the pipes will burst. or in Bitcoins case, the system will choke, and the way we deal with the choke rn Tx price goes up to, like a faucet to control a steady flow.

There is one element that is troubling me a little bit. which is, if block size was bigger, overall transaction price will definitely be lower. would that have encouraged people to transact more, hence increasing flow rate because generally price affects demand for humans unlike water.