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Here’s what I’ve been thinkg recently. If ai wipes out a big chunk of jobs by making everything far more efficient… is that inflationary or deflationary? I’m betting on deflation.

If 1 in 5 people are out of work, what happens to housing prices? How much is a car worth if commuting gets cut in half?

Vinod Khosla predicts that in 20 yrs, $10k will buy more than $50k does today and his track record on this stuff is almost scary. With over $35T national debt, current interest rates and massive money printing, I almost find this prediction an insulting joke. But again, his track record scares me.

So if ai makes the future massively deflationary, the real question is what happens to capitalism when humanity finally meets with true abundance again after several centuries?

Zach⚡️ 4mo ago 💬 1

Deflation has little to do with AI because most jobs are unproductive already, and therefore increases in productivity gained from AI won’t translate into any meaningful gains.

The unproductive jobs could go away with or without AI if the fiat economy stopped funding them through taxation and monetary manipulation.

That would cause massive deflation, but is also not in the interest of the government, the fed, and all the people who depend on the unproductive system, so it will not happen. USD debasement is inevitable and is a product of government corruption and the incentives behind it.

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Discussion

bitcoinlimit 4mo ago 💬 1

i think this kinda underestimates the scale and speed of change ai also brings. it’s not just about removing servitude jobs that exist because of fiat distortions, it’s about dismantling productive jobs too, or radically reducing the cost of producing actual goods and services.

Zach⚡️ 4mo ago 💬 1

Let’s say unemployment is 20%. Just imagine how much money they would print and how many fake jobs they would create.

AI is a marginal improvement, but we’ve been making huge global productivity gains for 50 years. We could’ve had massive deflation that entire time if it wasn’t for taxation, government spending, and monetary manipulation.

The economy will continue to be completely fake until hyperbitcoinization. Atlas Shrugged is essentially non-fiction.

bitcoinlimit 4mo ago 💬 1

Agreed that fake jobs can definitely mask unemployment but ai impact isn’t marginal imo in the same way past productivity gains were. Over the last 50 yrs or even more gains were often offset by labor shifting into new industries or by regulatory drag. Now ai threatens all industries at once manufacturing, logistics, finance, law, healthcare, software, you name it. removing both skilled and unskilled simultaneously. Fascinating to witnesses all of these.

Zach⚡️ 4mo ago 💬 1

To be clear, you think that because of AI, things like the consumer price index and real estate will fall 80% against the US dollar?

bitcoinlimit 4mo ago 💬 1

This is what I’m questioning, yes. Some reputable minds predict this outcome, though the numbers could change. But as i said, given the money printing, current rates, and national debt, i almost find this prediction an insulting joke.

Zach⚡️ 4mo ago 💬 1

I predict that they are going to print so much money your face is going to melt off and we will enter a soft mandibles-like situation.

And a chatbot which makes pictures and indexes things fast won’t affect that outcome.

bitcoinlimit 4mo ago 💬 1

Agreed on the money printing part. But i think you’re underestimating just how fundamental the changes from ai are going to be. it’s not just another tech upgrade or a chatbot. we’re about to witness a complete rewrite of how the economy, labor and even value creation itself work.

Zach⚡️ 4mo ago 💬 1

AI replaces the jobs which were the most useless and least labor intensive. Which is to say, it will replace very little because you can’t keep your big government budgets if you get a chatbot to work for you.

But let’s see how it plays out! My money is where my mouth is.

DevinNButterBall 4mo ago

I enjoyed this back and forth