I’ve been studying the Cairo real estate market both because I’m a buyer and because it’s useful inflation research to witness the process of how quickly/slowly and evenly/unevenly prices adjust to an FX devaluation.

Some real estate in bubbly areas jumps in local nominal price quickly; other areas barely move in price. Egypt doesn’t have a ton of foreign real estate buyers (compared to say, Chinese nationals buying Thai property) so prices tend to be low. There is however a lot of construction supply growth.

Was looking at a new villa today which is four stories and six bedrooms, in order to house a multigenerational family (nine total people). Made of brick and cement at its core and with beautiful finishing. Has an elevator, which is important for the seniors of the family that have trouble with stairs. Nice view, yard, community.

It’s comparable in price to a random house half its size in US suburbia that is made of cheap wood and drywall that will last a third as long. So the price per square foot compared to that is half, and even less if quality-adjusted. Of course, with a much riskier legal and financial jurisdiction.

But then it can be paid for over seven years without interest (you just forgo the cash-up-front discount which is not all that big), in the local currency that doubles in supply every four years (20% annualized broad money growth), so you are basically shorting the currency.

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Egyptians are fucked up....

They really need #bitcoin, not otherwise...

You have answered a question i have been having for a while. You rock.

When I was in egypt I saw some amazing developments in 6th of October City as well as a few areas on your way towards Alexandria, and I am wondering who is purchasing all these things if most Egyptians are huddled together in Cairo with very few people having the income to purchase what I would consider upper middle class homes in the country

Is the construction boom government subsidised to try and drum up work and economic growth like China did?

I worked with a company in Egypt so I know the wages for a tech worker in the region isn't that great and simply assumed that is the norm, along with multi-generational living, so where is the demand for all these new suburbs coming from?

I did speak to some people I met there from arab states like Kuwait who may have a holiday home or come to Egypt to enjoy the currency devaluation on holiday but that was about it, what am I missing?

Doctors, lawyers, engineers, advertising execs, business execs, celebrities, etc.

Multigenerational pools some family capital sometimes. And unlike in the US they often don’t have a house plus a stock portfolio, since far fewer Egyptians own stocks. A higher % of net worth is the house.

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#Thainostrich #Siamstr

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Not to mention taxes. Property taxes in the US are much much higher in comparison with other places in the middle east and maintenance is cheaper as well.

So all in all, running costs are much cheaper.

It’s true.

Buy

What’s the “boots on the ground” view of Bitcoin in Egypt? I know there is an outright ban on BTC mining…but what does the general public think of it?

Most people don’t know almost anything about it, compared to say Nigeria. In fact the only time I ever ran into a person (a friend actually) who had never even heard of it, was in Egypt.

Of course there are some tech savvy people that get it, but overall it is a country with not a ton of bitcoin adoption.

How do they construct the sub flooring on each level above ground? Wooden trusses, wood stick built, steel beams, etc.?

Hi Lyn , do you know if this approach could applied to the Argentine real estate market? Or do you know someone who is knowledgeable of the market?

who finances it?

Very Interesting.

So, did you buy? 😜

If the Egyptian central bank doesn’t kill the currency over 7 years, Bitcoin will.