I agree on the facts but with complex systems is hard to say where they will mute, and on a permissionless network people will opt in for custodial services and there is nothing to do about that IMO.
For me is healthy so long people can run they own nodes un the most self soveraign way possible, so permissionless will prevail. Also I see the development of Bitcoin (and any really complex system) as a discovery proces wich almost certanly the stable solutions will be counter intuitive so I really don't mind that the best answer is different than the fisrt draft of Bitcoin. So long the essense is still intact and it can deliver.
For the nostr use case, or the stacker news use case I don't think that is worth it to go full non custodial for most people just for zapp around a few sats here and there but of course privacy needs and self reliance are different for each person