Why wouldn't you just mine a block yourself?

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Or create/enforce regulations that apply to data in any part of a block, not just OP_RETURNs...

That too!

Did you miss my point? You can mine offending blocks with our without the controversial change of v30. So a state actor waiting for v30 is perhaps not so sophisticated.

This attacker is playing the long game, waiting for the file storage use case to be entrenched. Timing of the attack is key. The goal is to force a fork and select the most easily controlled version. Kill freedom money by making self-custody and node running difficult.