The SPX is near complete with several higher time-frame harmonic patterns that usually coincide with reversals in charts. I've also noticed that these are areas where consolidation can happen prior to a "breakout" (trend or reverse trend confirmation) in either direction.

The elliott wave count probably locates this as a period of consolidation, prior to a wave 5, which would take the SPX to new all time highs.

All that said, the macro picture looks bleak. I'm not experienced enough to know if the macro picture always looks bleak, or if this time is particularly bleak. (Imo, it's probably always bleak, with varying degrees of bleakness.)

If we don't see a high probability recession as predicted by so many, then perhaps we're either in it now, or the money printer broke the typical cycle in exchange for a much more dramatic event. I think it's likely to happen yet... probably.

Finally, I'm trading this cautiously. If the SPX goes above the previous all time high in 2021 later this year, then I think, new optimism could express itself with risk assets making exciting highs. The "crowded trade" that bitcoin and crypto is right now, could become much more crowded as people try gambling on bitcoin, and cryptos.

The bitcoin ETF thing is a "buy the rumor, sell the news event," imo. I think it's likely to happen, and the prelude to such an event will probably be marked with progressive increases in price.