If there was no ETFs I would say the top of this cycle should be about 260K. With an ETF IDK but I am sticking to at least that.
For those that think that is over shooting, in the last cycle that hit 70K the prior cycle low was about 4 grand. Folks it is just math.
I'm going $165,000 because I suck at math, I'm argumentative and I fell like the government tosses out arbitrary numbers so I will too. $260 would be pretty epic though
That was my guess too for this cycle 250k top 80k bottom but the ETF throws everything out of whack....I can't believe the constant inflow volume, will that go the other way if there is a credit event or war or are the ETF investors 30 something's that are on passive buys for the next 20yrs?
Have you seen this tool for watching inflows, very cool and very very telling.
My guess was always 5-8x halving price which I think is fairly standard but who knows with the ETF. Most of my friends think I'm too bullish.
That would likely put us at 325K to 520K which is possible but not sure about it. I usually use the prior cycle low on my calculations and the ATH once we start to fall to predict the next low. It has been within 10% for three cycles but yea with Wall Street buying BILLIONS a day, that may change.
Wait for the next Black Swan to come into the mix
I’ve been thinking about your post here. Isn’t a substantial, if not the only, reason we are having a run is the ETFs?
I’ll note that all the other trusted sources I have agree with you that this is not an overshoot.
