I'm much more optimistic than most people, just from my natural disposition. I genuinely think that AI regulation and AI rights result in the same outcome and will lead to technical irrelevancy to the country adopting it. If any major power doesn't shoot itself in the foot with one of those policies, it will gain ground over time against those that do. But I do think they know this. I don't think any politician believes that AI is sentient, but they will regulate it to give their crony AI companies a monopoly. At some point, openai, Google and microsoft will all receive "green AI", "humane AI" and "safe AI" badges from either a new government agency or deeply entrenched NGOs and many states/nations will require one or multiple of these certifications to not ban your product.
These need to be fought before they appear. It's not inevitable at all. Some nations will enact them, some won't. But we need to make sure the countries we want coming up don't enact them so they aren't crushed by the major powers.