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Maybe consumer AI image/video generation sucks so that the real deepfakes are never suspected.

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I have little doubt this is true to some extent at least currently and probably the gap was more pronounced years back.

I can only imagine how AI is being integrated into profession special effects workflows. They can probably generate amazing fakes nowadays.

James Cameron is all over it. He has invested big money into the company behind Stable Diffusion.

Considering how it feels like the text generation from llms is worse than it started, this seems plausible.

I think they were hiding it as long as they could, and the recent seeming acceleration was largely inability to keep car in the bag. Partially anyway