How early are we, and WTF does exponential growth have to do with this?

Estimating the percentage of the world’s population that holds Bitcoin is challenging, but based on recent data the total global population is approximately 8 billion.

Estimates suggest there are between 300 million to 500 million Bitcoin holders worldwide.

Using the midpoint of 400 million holders, around 5% of the world’s population holds Bitcoin.

So we are still in the first half of the early adoption phase.

Doubling Rate

We assume adoption doubles every 1.5 years (an idealized, backward-looking average). Real adoption likely fluctuates.

Interpretation

1.5 years from now, you might see 800 million users (~10% of global population), and we'll still be in the early adopter phase.

At 3 years, 1.6 billion (~20%).

At 4.5 years, 3.2 billion (~40%).

Around 5 years, 4 billion users (~50%).

By 6.5 years, in theory, 8 billion (~100% of today’s population).

Reality Check

Exponential growth rarely proceeds so smoothly. Global events, regulations, and competing technologies can accelerate or slow adoption.

These numbers are purely illustrative, not predictions.