Yep all of them will get smashed. The equivalent is CSCO which made routers and lost 70-90% of its value top to bottom. In my book I point out that CSCO was valued at 43x revenue at its peak. NVDA also valued at 43x revenue. Coincidence?
Discussion
In my (illeterate) opinion, where I see the parallelism breaking is that Cisco didn't have Mag7 sized, non-internet companies supporting those sales. It was more akin to a gazillion Palantirs buying the chips, rather than MS or Google, which are not AI companies per se.
43x is a very high valuation, no doubt. My point is that maybe the hit is something like 30-40% instead of 70-90%. Wdyt?
I was about to write this reply, "Cisco was probably the biggest culprit of the dot-com bubble burst..🤔", but Lawrence has already given you the same answer.
But I don't think such a big shock will come to Nvidia anytime soon. It's hard to be free from the CUDA ecosystem in AI development.
Instead, the variable is China. Due to sanctions, China could develop its own AI standards and technology under collaboration with Huawei, Xiaomi, etc. and their AI technology is advancing very quickly. If the DeepSeek shock happens in hardware, Nvidia could (temporarily) become like Cisco.