So say your couple A gets $100. But that $100 had to come from the bureaucratic machine that is the government. They had to hire extra people to deal with that incentive. This $100 that you get probably costed taxpayers $200 so if you scale that up somewhere people fall below a reasonable treshold where they were pondering to have children but decided to not do it because even though they get $100, they are charged $200 extra in taxes so they are still $100 short.

Taxes always weigh heaviest on people just entering the job market for minimum wages and these are the people that have to make the children.

Even with a 1:1 relation where you get taxed $100 and somebody else receives that exact amount without intermediaries taking cuts it would still make no sense. You are quite literally destroying capitalism and the free market right there.

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Maybe that factors into people's decisions, but the data suggest it's mainly a personal opinion rather than economic: https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2024/07/25/the-experiences-of-u-s-adults-who-dont-have-children/.

Given that most people's opinions are shaped by their culture, we should do as much as we can to promote a culture of strong families. But it's also fair to say the government is a terrible allocator of resources.

Sure, I never said it's the only factor. Take for example this clusterfuck in south korea:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lmoZ_W4WjW0