One of the reasons why I think #Bitcoin    will reach $1M before Bitcoin ETFs hold 1M #BTC   :

Countries won't be buying ETFs.

They will be buying Bitcoin and keeping it in cold storage.

They will do whatever they can to avoid another Nixon shock.

Bitcoin bought for treasuries will raise the price and slow down the accumulation of BTC by the ETFs

I could be wrong - maybe my estimate for when nation-state adoption happens is too early!