I might, I only took stats 1 and that was many years ago.
its interesting to see how you're thinking through the problem though
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Doing the wrong math or doing the math wrong?
I know I'm close enough to make the informed decision I don't like those odds.
Go back to this. Its close, but not quite how the odds are statistically calculated
So 2 in 20 * 1 in 4 +
..... 1 in 20 * 2 in 4, ....