Consider that, all else being equal, the most likely number of heads is 500. So why would you suggest a number different from the most likely outcome? -- unless you think that all else was not equal.
Which is the most likely sequence?
200->300->400
or
500->300->400
https://x.com/unclebobmartin/status/1824068375640678769…

Source: x.com/unclebobmartin/status/1824089399686033831