Yup - I don't know whether it will be fedi but it seems like a good approach to a layer 3 solution to me.

It's going to take Bitcoiners a while to come around to it but I think normies will accept it much quicker.

There will be people who lose sats to them but by pushing the risk out to the edges of the social network, you limit the extent of the damage. Lightning will be the predominant layer 2 solution supporting these federations.