Replying to Avatar MattA

I asked two separate LLM’s to work together & place Bitcoin on the Technology Adoption S-Curve

Here is the summary of the verdict.

I have to say, I think I agree 🤯

1. Bitcoin's Position on the S-Curve

• The Phase: The analysis concluded that the current profile of buyers (driven by ETFs, corporate adoption, and regulatory clarity) places Bitcoin at the beginning of the Early Majority phase.

• The Visual Interpretation: The generated image, however, was visually placed at the inflection point (the steepest part of the curve), which is the transition from the Early Majority to the Late Majority. This aggressive placement reflected the accelerated growth and massive institutional factors (Wall Street integration, government adoption, bank custody, and the potential future use case of AI agent savings) mentioned in the prompt.

2. The Price Implications of the "Downhill Phase"

The "downhill phase" of the S-curve (the move into the Late Majority and Laggards) does not signify a price crash, but a significant shift in price drivers:

• Deceleration of Volatility: Price growth will likely decelerate and become less volatile, moving from exponential, speculative spikes to a more measured, stable rate.

• Rising Price Floor: The price floor will rise substantially as institutional capital enters. The scarcity (21 million coin limit) means the Late Majority must buy in at a much higher price, leading to less available supply.

• Shift in Value Driver: The price will be driven less by technological innovation and more by its confirmed utility as a global reserve asset (like "digital gold") and as the foundational infrastructure layer for new economies (e.g., Layer 2 solutions and AI agent systems).

• Massive Market Cap: The final stage is associated with achieving a high market capitalization, cementing its role as a core global financial asset.

The overall sentiment is that the current phase is the last chance for "outsized gains" before its volatility and returns begin to resemble a more mature asset like gold.

how can we be early majority

if the sats per vbyte is still 1 ?

i dont think that we are at 50% adoption

at least the graph is misleading

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Yes. I questioned them relentlessly on this. I didn’t want to believe that “we aren’t early” but I think what the models are actually pointing to instead is that Bitcoin has largely become de-risked.

okay i would say yes to the de-risk factor

but adoption is less then 10%

most of institutions only advice to put 1-5% into bitcoin

USA is not the whole world

and internet is also only at 70%

Would put “early majority” institutional adoption year one at 2024 ETF launch and imagine a decade long scaling into almost every financial product.

This is an institutional chart…

I personally do not feel like you are early in bitcoin n e more unless you were involved years ago now…

Bitcoin is kinda main stream now…

even if its true for the USA

the world is much bigger

i dont see 20% to 50% adoption

nobody uses it or excepts it at shops

only because of some ETFs

or 5 big companies

doesnt make it adopted so high

even the internet is only at 70% adoption

so bitcoin is less then 10% adoption in my mind

For contrast:

“Gold's Placement: The Laggard Phase

On the Technology Adoption S-Curve, Gold is firmly placed in the Laggard phase (Market Saturation)

Bitcoin's S-curve is Gold's S-curve on fast-forward

Bitcoin has achieved millennia of Gold's adoption trajectory in just over a decade. The volatility you see in Bitcoin is the compressed price discovery of an asset transitioning from a small, speculative investment to a global reserve asset at an unprecedented speed.”

Um blackrock is involved they own like what 50% of everything right?

So that’s the big boys coming in…

Not sure what else you need…