Interesting.
Maybe push the extreme. Half of circulating supply. Push max fiat value. I bet the price per coin is close to $50-100m a coin
Discussion
This is math out put forth by grok 🤷
grok is a bigot
Grok
"Let’s dive into this intriguing scenario where half of Bitcoin’s circulating supply, utilized on the Lightning Network, becomes the backbone of a global monetary system facilitating payments equivalent to the global M2 money supply. We’ll tackle the three parts of the query systematically: assessing feasibility, calculating the cost per Bitcoin, and determining the cost per Satoshi.
### a) Feasibility
The Lightning Network is a layer-2 scaling solution for Bitcoin, designed to enable fast, low-cost transactions off-chain while leveraging Bitcoin’s security. The idea here is that half of Bitcoin’s circulating supply powers this network to handle global payments matching the M2 money supply—a broad measure encompassing cash, checking deposits, and near-money worldwide. But is this plausible?
- **Scalability**: The Lightning Network can theoretically process a vast number of transactions per second, far exceeding Bitcoin’s base layer. However, it’s still developing. Supporting a global payment system would demand robust infrastructure—thousands of well-funded nodes and channels—to manage worldwide transaction volume without bottlenecks.
- **Adoption**: For this vision to materialize, individuals, businesses, and governments globally would need to embrace the Lightning Network. This requires a monumental shift from traditional financial systems, facing resistance from entrenched institutions and necessitating widespread education and trust in a decentralized system.
- **Regulatory Hurdles**: Governments might view a Bitcoin-based global network as a threat to monetary sovereignty. Regulatory pushback, restrictions, or outright bans could stifle adoption, especially in major economies.
- **Technical Challenges**: Issues like channel liquidity (ensuring enough BTC is available in channels), efficient routing across a massive network, and maintaining security at scale remain unresolved. While progress is ongoing, these hurdles are significant.
Given these factors, the feasibility in the near term is **low**. The Lightning Network holds promise, but achieving global dominance for payments requires overcoming substantial technological, social, and political barriers. It’s a long-term possibility, not an imminent reality.
### b) Cost per Bitcoin
Now, let’s estimate the cost per Bitcoin in this hypothetical world. The scenario posits that half of Bitcoin’s circulating supply, via the Lightning Network, facilitates payments equal to the global M2 money supply. We’ll need some figures and assumptions to crunch the numbers.
- **Circulating Supply of BTC**: As of July 2025 (a reasonable projection point), Bitcoin’s circulating supply is approximately 19.89 million BTC, accounting for mined coins minus those lost or dormant.
- **Global M2 Money Supply**: The global M2, summing M2 figures across countries, is around $120 trillion USD in mid-2025, based on economic trends and data up to that point.
- **Scenario Interpretation**: Half the circulating supply—about 9.945 million BTC—is “on the Lightning Network,” supporting payments worth $120 trillion. In the Lightning Network, BTC is locked in channels, but the total value of payments can exceed the locked amount due to rapid, repeated off-chain transactions. However, the query equates these payments to the global M2, suggesting a valuation link.
To proceed, let’s assume that if the Lightning Network becomes the global monetary system, Bitcoin’s total market capitalization reflects the economic activity it underpins—here, the $120 trillion in payments. This is speculative but aligns with how currencies are valued based on the economies they support. If all 19.89 million BTC underpin this system (even if only half is actively locked at any time), the market might price the entire supply accordingly.
**Calculation**:
- Total market cap of BTC = Global M2 = $120,000,000,000,000
- Circulating supply = 19,890,000 BTC
- Price per BTC = $120,000,000,000,000 ÷ 19,890,000 ≈ $6,033,000
Rounding for clarity, the cost per Bitcoin would be approximately **$6,030,000**. This assumes the market values Bitcoin’s total supply as equivalent to the global M2, a simplification given the Lightning Network’s dynamics, but fitting for this thought experiment.
### c) Cost per Satoshi
A Satoshi is Bitcoin’s smallest unit, where 1 BTC = 100,000,000 Satoshis. With the price per Bitcoin established, calculating the cost per Satoshi is straightforward.
**Calculation**:
- Price per BTC = $6,030,000
- Price per Satoshi = $6,030,000 ÷ 100,000,000 = $0.0603
Thus, each Satoshi would be worth approximately **$0.0603**, or **6.03 cents**. This makes sense in a world where Bitcoin’s value has soared to represent global M2, elevating even its tiniest fraction.
### Final Thoughts
These calculations hinge on the assumption that Bitcoin’s market cap matches the $120 trillion M2, reflecting its role as the global payment backbone. Real-world factors—velocity of money, partial adoption, or alternative valuation models—could adjust this, but the scenario’s framing supports this approach. The results are staggering: a Bitcoin at $6.03 million and a Satoshi at 6 cents paint a picture of a radically transformed financial landscape.
So, to summarize:
- **a)** The feasibility is low due to scalability, adoption, regulatory, and technical challenges.
- **b)** The cost per Bitcoin would be approximately $6,030,000.
- **c)** The cost per Satoshi would be approximately $0.0603."