No expert here, but I believe the original rant that spawned the #hodl meme was declaring that the speaker was going to hold, rather than speculatively trade his bitcoin back and forth. Because he felt trading fiat => btc => fiat was rigged in various ways.
Holding rather than speculating does favour stability in exchange rates, which is favourable to bitcoin-as-medium-of-exchange.
But you are also correct to say it may be discouraging to merchants, its not exactly a vote of confidence in the (very low) velocity of bitcoin-as-medium-of-exchange.