The OECD has raised its forecast for global economic growth this year by 0.3 percentage point to 3.2%, citing stronger-than-expected resilience in the first half of the year as industrial production and trade were supported by pre-tariff stockbuilding. The organisation left its 2026 world growth projection unchanged at 2.9%; world GDP grew 3.3% last year. (23 September 2025)

Country specifics: the OECD expects US growth to slow to 1.8% this year (down from 2.8% last year) but revised that estimate up 0.2 pp since June; US growth is seen at 1.5% in 2026. China’s 2025 outlook was raised to 4.9% from 4.7%, with 2026 growth forecast at 4.4%. The eurozone forecast was nudged up to 1.2% for 2025 (from 1.0%), while next year’s estimate was trimmed to 1.0% (from 1.2%).

The OECD warned the full impact of higher US tariffs introduced under President Donald Trump has not yet been felt: firms have so far absorbed much of the shock through margin compression and pre‑tariff inventory purchases. The effective US import tariff rate was estimated at about 19.5% through end‑August, the highest level since 1933. Investment in artificial intelligence in the US and fiscal support in China have propped up activity, but the inventory boost is fading and higher tariffs are likely to weigh on investment and trade.

On policy, the OECD expects most major central banks to ease or keep monetary policy loose next year if inflation pressures continue to wane. If higher tariffs do not spark broader inflation, the Fed could cut rates amid a softer labour market, while the ECB is expected to keep policy unchanged as inflation remains near its 2% target. #OECD #GDP #tariffs #AI #FiatNews