China Morning Missive

“Methinks the lady doth protest too much.”

Trump has kicked this TikTok can three times. If you were on the other side of the negotiating table how seriously would you take Lutnick?

Besides, I’ve held the position that the Chinese are of the mind to just let the American TikTok platform burn. Did you know that the parent - ByteDance - is 60% owned by foreign PE and VC groups.

There’s no way that General Atlantic or BlackRock - Jess Yass at Susquehanna - would allow that much value to just disappear.

This entire episode is all the evidence you need to fully understand just how poorly positioned the American side is when it comes to navigating some sort of Grand Bargain.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/24/tiktok-trump-us-china.html

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Discussion

Do I have this right?

US: we’re gonna ban TikTok

China: cool

PE/VC: wait a minute, we need an exit Mr. President!

So China has a bargaining chip they couldn’t care less about. They use it for leverage to get what they want out of the US govt by holding the western PE/VCs hostage?

Correct. And here’s the cherry on top. This dynamic was also at play when Alibaba went to go public with Ant Financial and when Didi went public.

Both were majority owned by foreign PE/VC investors and a new data protection law was on the precipice of being released. That law would have cratered the valuation of both companies.

The foreign investors need exit liquidity and fast. Short cuts were made and while exit liquidity was achieved for Didi the Chinese regulators finally saw what was happening and put a stop to the Ant listing.

I would add …. It was this - a rush to provide exit liquidity for investors - that led to the fall of Jack Ma. I continue to laugh every time I see a story about Jack Ma being kneecapped because he posed some sort of threat to the Communist Party and Xi Jinping. Seriously?? Zero threat. The man just believed to greatly in his own ego and was crushed under its weight in the end.

Man it really is, “Follow the money”.

Seems like Trump is the Jack Ma of this story.