Last week I went only 2-3 on the Ugly picks, but 4-0-1 on the Normal ones, and to my great surprise, the Normal picks (15-4-1) tied for a piece of the second quarter prize in the faux super contest, and $440 showed up in my account today. (I have two thus-far identical “Normal” entries, so $220 for each.)
Not bad for three entries of $20.
It’s not exactly winning the Super Contest, but after a rough start, I’ll take it.
Okay let’s take a look at Week 9:
When I wrote Guessing The Lines Monday night, I wondered why I was so far off on the Dolphins-Chiefs, and of course, I hadn’t realized that game was in Frankfurt, not Kansas City. (The only time I’ve been to Frankfurt, it was in the airport on a layover, and Sasha and I ate frankfurters we got at a kiosk there. When in Frankfurt...)
In any event, I still like the Chiefs for the reasons I gave in Guessing The Lines. The Dolphins are fun but soft, and both losses came against good teams (Eagles and Bills.) The Chiefs are a buy-low after a poor showing against the Broncos too.
The Saints are a good team with playmakers on both sides of the ball. The Bears just dealt for Montez Sweat for God knows what reason, but they’re a bad team likely starting their backup QB for another week. This is a relatively modest line for a home game.
The Colts are a league-average team and a good buy-low after two straight losses. The Panthers are a sell-high after an upset win too.
Dak Prescott’s looked good the last couple weeks, but like the Dolphins the Cowboys tend to wilt against good teams. The Eagles have the better coach and the deeper set of skill players.
The Bengals and Bills are roughly equal on offense, but Cincy has the better defense and is playing at home, while laying less than three.
I doubled up on the Colts because it’s the easiest call for me. The Panthers got the monkey off their back, and the Colts have the doormat they need to right the ship.
The Vikings are especially ugly after losing Kirk Cousins for the year, and more so after it looks like newly acquired Joshua Dobbs might not play much.
The Seahawks and Ravens are both sell-highs, but give me the six-point underdog in this scenario to hang around.
The Bucs would really be the “ugly” pick here, but I like buying low on the Texans after they just lost to the Panthers.
I was initially on the Patriots, but I had to take the team that just traded away two of its key defensive players for draft picks. I don’t like that they’re coming off a tough loss though.
I really wanted to pick someone in the Giants-Raiders or Jets-Chargers, but realized I wanted to fade all of four of them.
