TL;DR use the tool I just released: https://jlopp.github.io/bitcoin-confirmation-risk-calculator/
Discussion
According to this itβs 60 conf before your transaction is risk free from reorg.
β¦. Against the risk of a mining pool doing a double spend attack, which they are incentivized not to do
Pools are certainly disincentived from performing attacks; they would likely lose a ton of business if they were to do so. And miners in general are long-term holders that are disinclined to harm folk's confidence in the system.
However, a pool can still be a single point of failure; someone could exploit a vulnerability to hijack a pool for a short period of time.
Solid take.
Cant they possibly hack all pools, or 3-4 major ones and do some real damage?
How would you hack a pool or pools towards a hash attack? Youβd have to own them for some period of time (~60 confs X 10 minutes is 10 hours)?
Would stratumv2 mitigate this .. hmm i should read your thing first probably π
28% risk of reorg after 6 confirmation means there is a 78% chance it wonβt happen or 28% chance it will succeed. You should calculate the cost or and risk to the pool when trying to do this