“When I used to pick NFL games against the spread for RotoWire, I would joke after a bad week that my picks were perfect, but it was the games that got themselves wrong.

I’ve touched on this concept quite a bit here too — But My Process Was Good and Why Blake Snell Should Win The NL Cy Young Award This Year both highlight the category error of speciously applying tools of prediction toward the past. Tldr: the past is in no need of predicting because it already happened.”