He always anchors to something ridiculous and gets more than people anticipated.

Polymarket had it at 3-5k sold as the most likely outcome (iirc) when they first announced it months ago.

I'd guess it'll be closer to 10k. We shall see (if he puts aside ego and actually releases the numbers-/big if)

I'm mostly curious what the guarantees and fine print are to prevent the purchasers from being rugged by a Gavin Newsome in 3 years

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He’s going to struggle to keep the numbers quiet with how many bureaucrats will have access to this information, and will leak it to generate a negative news cycle against him.