Here's what Grok said about the likelihood of quantum computing cracking ECDSA:

• Near-term (by 2030): Very low, often estimated at under 5–20% by sources including AI models and researchers, as quantum progress has been incremental rather than revolutionary.   Claims of imminent breakthroughs are often overhyped, and current devices can’t sustain Shor’s algorithm on real-world key sizes. 

• Medium-term (2030–2040): Moderate and increasing, as investments in quantum tech accelerate, but still contingent on unsolved physics and engineering challenges.  

• Long-term (beyond 2040): High if quantum scaling succeeds, but this assumes no major roadblocks.