Fiat market clearing house rates? I think we're talking about different things. If you assume transaction fee's in sats/vbyte are going to drop then maybe...but I doubt that. There'll be periods where it's lower, periods where it's higher, but there'll always be fee's and in £/sat terms, as the bitcoin price rises so does the cost of online transactions, which will price a majority out of on chain use.
Discussion
yes, competition against fiat money transfer costs is very relevant
for all transactions on chain above about $1000 nominal exchange rate value the fee rates are close to 0.1%, and as you increase your tx size this overhead cost drops proportionally
a large majority of small transactions are now being done off chain with LN... i pay my VPS bill with btcpayserver... many businesses are adopting this easy to deploy system and this is bitcoin payment volume that never sees the chain in any substantial way
Okay we seem to be talking at cross purposes. My maths is right, that much I know absolutely, so I'll happily leave it there 😁