My mental model is that bitcoin is following the standard “s curve” that describes the adoption of new technologies. You can see below, three phases.

The first phase is incubation where the bugs get worked out and technology becomes easier to use.

The second phase is the accelerating adoption as network effects compound.

The third phase is the plateau where the technology is ubiquitous and stable.

My personal guess is that this bull cycle will be the inflection point and the rate of adoption will accelerate.

If I’m right, we’ll see a price closer to $500k in ~18 months. It will be a price higher than most of us are expecting because we’re used to the current rate of adoption and not an accelerating rate.

Remember, no matter how high the price goes, there’s no point in trying to time the market. Any bitcoin you sell, you’ll probably never get back so whatever you buy must be worth it.