There are many things that influence price. In a free market, the basic law of economics is a balance between supply and demand. The halving reduces the supply so, all externalities being equal, if demand remains the same, then price will rise. If the same number of buyers are chasing a limited product, there are market participants who will pay whatever premium desired by Sellers to obtain the product. This all makes sense and you probably know it, already. There are other externalities which affect price. In ₿itcoin, there are dozens of risks beyond general market dynamics including: regulatory, tax, jurisdictional, legal, political, Sybil attacks, BIP upgrade errors, user errors, Whale moves, miner capitulation/solvency, kWh rates in energy markets, interest rate changes, sovereign/institutional buying and selling etc. Several of these latter points are related to Liquidity, which is a different matter.