People imagine some event between NATO countries and Russia would trigger an all out war with nukes flying.
In reality, a lot of said events that seem like they would trigger war will actually be ignored because neither side wants an all-out war.
As a result, both sides engage in such events because they know they can get away with it. And the situation slowly escalates with more and more sub-all-out-war activity.
All big wars begin this way. Serbia was fighting a not-quite-war with Austria. Austria demanded that Serbia choose peace or war. Serbia refused to choose, not agreement capable, the government was incapable of choosing. Austria invades. All nations linked by Nato like mutual defence treaties, World War One begins.
Nato is already directly involved in the Ukraine, but is pretending it is not, thus Russia cheerfully strikes Nato in Ukraine. Nato ignores this, because admitting Nato presence would result in World War three. So it is increasingly using undeniable Nato assets for warlike acts against Russia, figuring that the Russians will not strike undeniable assets, for fear that Nato would be forced to admit Nato presence. But assets used for warlike acts are apt to be struck.
