People are already talking a lot about the digital euro – but hardly anyone mentions the digital ID. It’s being introduced quietly, almost unnoticed. I’m not sure the digital euro will ever really happen. The launch date has been postponed several times, and now they say it won’t come until 2029. If things keep going like this, there might not even be a euro left by the time the digital euro arrives.

The Swiss have explicitly voted in favour of Digital ID and there's talk of a "digital franc" to "compete" with the digital euro, the British will have digital ID forced upon them by the end of the current government's term, or so Two-Tier Keir has threatened - a digital pound is of course being evaluated. And, well, the people living in the EU don't have any sovereignty left so they'll be forced into the digital euro whenever the Lords and Ladies of Brussels can make it work, 2029 is the current estimate, if the Bloc doesn't collapse before that, of course.

Regarding the masses and normies, they are far from thinking about those things. They are captivated by Russia Ukraine, local politic debates about nonsense and that trump is bad…

hi there nostr:nprofile1qywhwumn8ghj7er9wchxummnw3e8qmrp09nhymm4dejzucm0d5q32amnwvaz7tmgd9ehgtnwdaehgu3wd3skueqqyp08pu5h0fsjzn0zz4v95syljkfwvk73hqthryrsptnpjda3q9rnwu4nhk5

I can speak on the topic of CBDCs, i.e., the digital euro, from firsthand experience.

We need to distinguish between the two forms being discussed: the wholesale digital euro and the retail digital euro.

Wholesale – this is what banks and financial institutions want - primarily to complete their “on-chain settlement” use cases, such as interbank settlement, securities settlement, and cross-border settlement. This is because the cash lag (a form of digital euro) is still missing. Securities can be tokenized, but currency/cash cannot yet. Vibes in the industry are high, and it's a hotly debated topic among the major market participants.

Currently, there are two trends: First, the “official wholesale digital euro”, in which the ECB will provide a eurozone DLT platform to settle reserves on-chain. Last summer, trials and experiments were tested, and the ECB announced that they would work on an intermediate solution, followed by a permanent one (Pontes, then Appia).

The second trend is Euro Stablecoins, which would be issued by the banks themselves. The EU has robust regulations with MiCAR, and local banks don't want to cede the market to credible US issuers, such as Circle, JPMorgan, and others (the GENIUS Act is paving the way here). Several noteworthy projects have been launched or announced, suggesting that banks are not eager to wait for the ECB’s sanctioned digital euro. The stablecoin business model is also much more attractive to the banking industry. The ECB obviously doesn't like this development, and it remains to be seen how it will play out as the first stablecoins come to market, gain meaningful settlement volume, and gain traction.

As a side note, most euro stablecoins would initially be an institutional product for securities settlement and cross-border transactions, but they could eventually become retail products.

Retail – this is what the banks don't want (and, frankly, nobody needs), but what the ECB wants to push onto the market. Vibes are mixed. Countless industry assessors, experts, and commentators have gone public to say that a retail digital euro has no clear use case for consumers, won't fill an existing gap, will involve massive development and implementation costs, and isn't technologically up to date.

Banks fear disintermediation of their business model, which is why they would rather issue their own stablecoins. The ECB has postponed the announcement and implementation dates to 2028–2030. Despite sentiment drifting negative, the predominant narrative is that a digital euro is a strategic priority because “Europe must be sovereign from predominantly foreign payment providers” (read: geopolitical relevance). Central bankers and heads of state are telling everyone that we must have the digital euro because of Trump and China.

I cannot speak to the overall sentiment of retail consumers, but from my own experience and what I hear from other sources, consumers don't want or need another payment method or currency. As cash payments are receding everywhere, the European payments landscape is dominated by major players such as Visa, Mastercard, Apple Pay, Google Pay, and PayPal, which supply “digital euro” technology that works perfectly and with which everyone is now familiar. Local payment initiatives, such as Wero, are slow to take off. A sanctioned retail digital euro wouldn't be naturally adopted because consumers are accustomed to top-notch existing products. Consequently, the ECB and Eurozone member states - who still need to approve the rollout - would have to force the digital euro onto the market by mandating its adoption by banks and merchants, as well as for state payments such as taxes and benefits, just to achieve any meaningful usage.

Hope this gives you a decent overview. Feel free to ask follow-ups.