• Physics says the MOP is just capable of defeating Fordow when used in a massed, same-aim-point salvo – and Washington employed exactly that doctrine.

• The 12-round volley, coupled with Tomahawk “shaping fires,” gives at least a better-than-even chance that Fordow’s centrifuge halls are irrecoverably damaged for years.

• Even if a few cascades survive, collapsed tunnels, smashed transformers and dust contamination are likely to put the site offline for the foreseeable strategic horizon, forcing Iran to rebuild at new, undisclosed locations. That materially resets the nuclear clock – but it also incentivises Tehran to disperse and harden future facilities even more.