US Unemployment Rate

4.2% (actual) vs 4.2% (forecast) and 4.3% (prior)

#Normalization, not #recession

#macro

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Discussion

A lot of ppl don’t want to work or aren’t forced to work

You see the revisions down from last time?

7% gov deficit is not normalization

It is in a centrally-controlled system, like we have in the US. These are not "free" markets.

great moderation

Optout rate, still to low

And the correction adjustment is due when? πŸ˜†

Definition of Recession:

noun

The act of receding or withdrawing, as from a place, a claim, or a demand

A period during which economic activity, as measured by gross domestic product, declines for at least two quarters in a row in a specific country. If the decline is severe and long, such as greater than ten percent, it may be termed a depression.

Job statistics aren't really how you determine if you are in a recession.

https://www.wordnik.com/words/recession

I think this is better than a hard crash, hopefully.