Replying to Avatar mrclownworld

I’m off-setting that bullish possibility by the risk that the market price of bitcoin has been to-date carefully managed by large holders (cough cough Tether) rather than organic

If it has been truly organic for the past decade, then the bullish developments should drive the price parabolic, yes

But if it has been managed (ie artificially-inflated) with the goal of attracting widespread adoption, which is now occurring, then dramatic upward manipulation might be no longer necessary and thus the past would serve as no real predictor for future price action

I mean, the widely publicized S2FX of the last cycle was just dead fucking wrong

If we ignore price and look just at halving timing vs the last cycle, we may already be near peak

Greed and fear at 75 also suggests this possibility

On the positive side this would probably mean an 80% drawdown isn’t likely
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Chris Liss 11mo ago

Usually it's about 12-18 months post-halving when it peaks so yeah we’d have a long way to run IF it’s organic and IF this cycle unfolds like the last few.

But my main point is that’s just one half of the equation — the other is the total repudiation of the worst offenders against free speech and enterprise, and I don’t think that’s priced in, in terms of what could get built.

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mrclownworld 11mo ago

I do want to believe

I also just want the ability to plan for the future again

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Chris Liss 11mo ago

I hear you, it's been a very strong black pill the last 5 years.

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mrclownworld 11mo ago

Locked in my home, set at odds with my family members, watching loved ones die of Remdesivir poisoning and opioid addiction, watching a Deep State coup, all while hoping my magic internet money would go up fast enough that I could relax… yeah it’s been a weird 5 years for sure 😅