Instant settlement when it actually works lol but my concern is why are Bitcoiners so confident that people will be using so many different solutions when historically, they tend to use the best solution. Money is a winner take all game right? We all expect everyone to eventually use bitcoin. Why should we not expect everyone to eventually use one second layer solution?
Discussion
I think the most important thing here is that most people will still use custodial solutions. Like you say, they are the ones with the least friction (to the average person). In that sense lightning works perfectly
Yes, there is a rug risk, but I haven’t had any payment issues with my custodial lightning wallets. That’s what most people will look for
I do think something will replace lightning eventually though
My lightning is not custodial and works perfectly as well. To me, the rug risk is worth setting up a sovereign solution.
Custodial solutions are fine. They are better than fiat custodial solutions because the ability to instantly withdraw your money keeps providers very honest about their real holdings. They offer some convenience over self custody, and for small amounts that trade off makes sense.
My question is, what do you not like about the LSP model as demonstrated by Phoenix or Zeus? I think that having a single channel with a trusted provider who manages your liquidity is the best of both worlds. Self custodial, but very easy to onboard and manage.
Just to be clear, my point of view relates to the average person and not myself, I run Phoenix alongside WOS and am currently in the process of setting up a node
My point is more that most people won’t want to deal with the hassle, the same way they accept a lower interest rate on their savings account than they could make on the markets, for example. People still like custodians
Banks have rug risk too and most still trust them enough to keep all their money in them
Money is a single use case - storing and transmitting value
Methods of monetary storage are not a single use case. People have vastly different needs for money under different circumstances. I assume you have a checking account, savings account, credit card, safe at your house, etc.
The money itself is winner take all, but the way you use it isn’t necessarily one solution fits all. I have a different wallet to send zaps than to receive my paychecks. I have hot wallets and I have cold storage. They are not mutually exclusive. The money itself is, however.
Look at products like what unchained offers. Very niche multisig wallets where they hold two keys and allow you to do inheritance planning. That’s always going to have some demand, but there will never be a day where everyone uses it. Same goes for lightning, liquid, custodial wallets, etc.
What wallet/node software do you use? Lightning is pretty mature to the point where it “not working” is very diagnosable.