This is only the third time in recent history that the Fed has started rate cuts with a 50 bps cut. The previous two times, the economy crashed.

I'm leaning towards a dip at best and acknowledging a recession at worst.

I don't know about you - but I always plan for maximum pain and hope for the best. So even with all the rate cut hype, it's wise to brace for the worst - at least short-term.

It will all come down to the jobs reports, but it may not be what you expect.