【大饼相对黄金的优势】 搬迁自微博账户@囤饼达

那今天聊聊大饼相对与黄金的优势吧。

1、黄金的稀缺性不如大饼

虽然黄金是贵金属,实际上地球的黄金储量大约有60万亿吨,只是由于大部分处在地心附近以现有的人类技术无法开采。通过火山喷发等地壳运动,部分黄金移动隐藏在地壳浅层中,成为可开采的金矿。黄金的稀缺性主要是由于勘探和开采的成本太高,在已探明的金矿中,开采量主要受制于开采成本,黄金的价格如果降低,则开采黄金的动力不足,进入人类金融系统增量就减少;如果黄金的价格增高,则会激励人类增加投入去勘探、开采,增大黄金的产能,结果会稀释了黄金的价格,因此黄金的价格长期相对稳定。

大饼由于算法确定了总上限不会超过2100万个,是真正意义上的稀缺。要想更改这个上限,必须要让这种“反共识”的算力超过总算力的51%,这在当前总算力规模下已经不可能实现。

大饼的世界里代码即法律,丢失了私钥,则对应的饼就永久锁死在网络中不可用(至少400万以上的大饼已经被遗失锁死)。因此大饼的总量只会通缩。

大饼网络每新增21万个区块,区块奖励的大饼数量都会减半,这就是我们通常说的4年减半一次(21万个区块时间大约就是4年)。

从2008年开始的创世区块到2012年第210000区块,每个区块都给矿工奖励50个大饼。

从210001区块到2016年的420000区块奖励减半为25个。

从420001区块到2020年的630000区块奖励减半为12.5个。

从630001区块到2024年的840000区块奖励为6.25个。

以此类推,2024年840001区块开始,每个区块的奖励会变成3.125个。

(可能因此在2025年左右触发奇点事件,开启永恒牛市)

有意思的是,大饼增量越来越少,却不会像黄金那样会随着总算力(开采成本)的增加而变化,无论人类因为大饼的价格增高而堆砌多少算力,只会抬高大饼的生产成本,却无法增加哪怕1sat的大饼增量。因此,大饼具有的是真正的稀缺性。

曾经有人说大饼可以无限分割,所以它就没有稀缺性,这就是无稽之谈,首先大饼并不可以无限分割,它的最小单位是sat(聪),1饼=1亿聪。而且分割性和稀缺性没有任何关系,黄金可以分割到原子级别,并不影响1kg黄金的价值。无法认知到这点,坚持认为大饼无限分割不具有稀缺性的人,可能是智力发育有所欠缺。大家离他远点。

2、黄金的防伪性不如大饼

现在想买到真正的黄金是很难的,我们甚至经常看到新闻从某银行买的黄金可以吸磁铁。连银行都不可靠,那么普通人想买到货真价实的十足真金就太难了。

大饼网络中则不可能有假饼。只要能提上主链网络就一定是真大饼,就这么简单。

3、黄金的隐匿性和可携带性不如大饼

有人说“盛世地产乱世黄金”,指的是黄金具有人类价值共识和容易携带(相对于不动产)的特性。但是黄金毕竟是物理世界的产物,隐匿性很差。目前价值1000万人民币的黄金就重达27公斤。想象一下战乱期间,你驮着沉甸甸的根本无法藏匿的黄金,走到哪里都是一块赤裸裸的肥肉,能捱到和平地区不被谋财害命完全靠造化。

大饼就不一样了,采用脑钱包方式掌控私钥,身上可以不带任何硬件,做到0物理负载。人到哪,资产就到哪。更优秀的是,由于人饼合一,逃难时你在外表上和其他难民没有任何区别,亡命之徒无法得知你身携资产,也就不存在被盯上谋财的可能性。

4、黄金的可交付性不如大饼

比如伊朗要从英国某公司购买一批物资,由于无法使用银行交易(美国制裁),提出用黄金交付。那么将黄金从德兰黑运往伦敦,需要大批武装安保和大量的运输时间。如果用大饼,则10分钟上链,30分钟确认结算。完胜黄金这种笨重的物理介质。

大饼以上所述特性对黄金具有压倒性的优势,唯一的劣势就是相对于黄金数千年的人类共识,大饼还是一个新事物,不了解其优点的人还很多,总体人类共识还处于低点。但也正是如此,目前的大饼价格还是被严重低估,所以我们现在还有机会去定投。等到大饼人类共识上升到一定阶段,1个大饼甚至0.1个大饼就是普通人高攀不起的存在了。

【重发】

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Discussion

【Advantages of Bitcoin over gold】

So let's talk about Bitcoin's advantages over gold today.

1. Gold is not as scarce as Bitcoin

Although gold is a precious metal, the Earth's gold reserves are actually about 60 trillion tons, but most of them are near the center of the earth and cannot be mined with existing human technology. Through crustal movements such as volcanic eruptions, part of the gold movement hides in the shallow layers of the earth's crust and becomes mineable gold. The scarcity of gold is mainly due to the high cost of exploration and mining, in the proven gold mines, the mining volume is mainly subject to the cost of mining, if the price of gold is reduced, the power to mine gold is insufficient, and the increment into the human financial system is reduced; If the price of gold increases, it will motivate humans to increase investment in exploration and mining, increase the production capacity of gold, and as a result, the price of gold will be diluted, so the price of gold will be relatively stable for a long time.

Bitcoin is a real scarcity due to the algorithm that the total cap will not exceed 21 million. In order to change this upper limit, it is necessary to make this "anti-consensus" hashrate more than 51% of the total computing power, which is no longer possible under the current scale of total computing power.

In the world of Bitcoin, code is law, and if the private key is lost, the corresponding bitcoin is permanently locked in the network and unavailable (at least more than 4 million bitcoins have been lost and locked). Therefore, the total amount of Bitcoin will only deflation.

For every 210,000 new blocks added to the Bitcoin network, the number of bitcoins rewarded by the block is halved, which is what we usually call a 4-year halving (210,000 blocks is about 4 years).

From the genesis block that began in 2008 to block 210,000 in 2012, each block rewards miners with 50 bitcoins.

From 210001 blocks to 2016 the 420,000 block reward halved to 25.

From 420001 blocks to 630,000 blocks in 2020, the reward was halved to 12.5.

The reward from 630001 blocks to 840,000 blocks in 2024 is 6.25.

By analogy, starting 840001 blocks in 2024, the reward for each block will become 3.125.

(This may trigger a singularity event around 2025 to start an eternal bull market)

Interestingly, bitcoin increments are getting smaller and smaller, but they will not change with the increase of total hash power (mining costs) like gold, no matter how much computing power humans pile up due to the increase in the price of bitcoin, it will only raise the production cost of bitcoin, but it cannot increase even 1sat of bitcoin increment. Therefore, Bitcoin has real scarcity.

Someone once said that Bitcoin can be divided indefinitely, so it has no scarcity, this is nonsense, first of all, Bitcoin can not be divided indefinitely, its smallest unit is sat, 1 bitcoin = 100 million sat. And there is nothing to do with fragmentation and scarcity, gold can be divided to the atomic level, and does not affect the value of 1kg of gold. People who fail to recognize this and insist that Bitcoin is not scarce with infinite division may be intellectually deficient. Stay away from him.

2. Gold is not as counterfeit-proof as Bitcoin

Now it is difficult to buy real gold, and we often even see news that gold bought from a certain bank can attract magnets. Even banks are not reliable, so it is too difficult for ordinary people to buy real real gold.

There can be no fake Bitcoin in the Bitcoin network. As long as it can be mentioned on the main chain network, it must be real Bitcoin, it's as simple as that.

3. Gold is not as stealthy and portable as Bitcoin

Some people say "prosperous real estate troubled gold", which means that gold has the characteristics of human value consensus and easy to carry (as opposed to real estate). But gold, after all, is a product of the physical world and is poorly hidden. Gold worth 10 million yuan currently weighs 27 kilograms. Imagine that during the war, you carry a heavy amount of gold that cannot be hidden, and everywhere you go is a naked piece of fat, and you can survive to a peaceful area without being killed by profit.

Bitcoin is different, using a brain wallet to control the private key, without any hardware, to achieve 0 physical load. Where people go, assets go. Even better, because people and bitcoin are one, you are no different from other refugees when you flee, and outlaws cannot know that you have assets, so there is no possibility of being targeted for money.

4. Gold is not as deliverable as Bitcoin

For example, Iran wants to buy a batch of materials from a British company, and because it cannot use bank transactions (US sanctions), it offers to deliver them in gold. Transporting gold from Tehranhei to London, then, requires a lot of armed security and a lot of transit time. If you use Bitcoin, it will take 10 minutes to go on the chain and 30 minutes to confirm the settlement. Outperform gold, a bulky physical medium.

Bitcoin has an overwhelming advantage over gold, the only disadvantage is that compared to thousands of years of human consensus on gold, Bitcoin is still a new thing, there are still many people who do not understand its advantages, and the overall human consensus is still at a low point. But it is also true that the current price of Bitcoin is still seriously undervalued, so we still have the opportunity to invest now. When the human consensus of Bitcoin rises to a certain stage, 1 bitcoin or even 0.1 bitcoin is an existence that ordinary people cannot climb.