If Nostr succeeds, how long will it realisticly take in order to reach a critical mass? (1B+ Daily Active users, which would be more than X has now)

10 years?

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Longer. Its going to be a slow adoption just like bitcoin. Sometimes we will big pops of joiners and at times we gonna think its dead.

Interesting!

Succeeds as what? Im pretty sure, it won't end up as a simple x replacement. 😉