Replying to Avatar Ben Justman🍷

This steady slow grind upward of the bitcoin price feels like an attempted controlled demolition of the current financial system.

Buyers have shifted from people like me YOLOing in after a "sick podcast" to institutional and geopolitical actors using complex buying strategies designed to move the price as little as possible.

This year is an inflection point for bitcoin. The secret seems to be out in the circles of power. Some of them are telling us, but most are keeping it close to the vest so they can accumulate as much as possible.

If you're telling us about your established position, it means that you're ready for the price to pump. The powers that really control things don't seem to be there yet. When they get there, it will be loud, though who knows when that comes.

The signals are clear if you're watching. Seemingly everyone is lining themselves up to be on the Bitcoin Bandwagon and the Trump admin knows that it's only way out is up. The printers are coming.

It feels like the calm before the storm. If you see it, its obvious, but most people are still looking the other direction.

My main hesitation is that this inflection point feels TOO obvious. How could it be this clear? What am I missing? Can You Take Me Higher?

At what point do their complex buying strategies bump up against the immovable object of absolute scarcity? The fiat system both seems more fragile than those in it perceive, but more resilient than Bitcoiners expect.

It really does feel like something is about to happen though.

I think you're right.

I think there's a lot of money waiting for a cheaper price, anticipating another broad deleveraging event.

The deleveraging is likely but the monetary inflation is inevitable. I'd say they (precoiners) are between the rock & the hard place. We just need to be patient.

I'm really interested in seeing how Bitcoin handles the deleveraging. How exposed are Bitcoiners right now?

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Discussion

Hodlrs don't seem exposed at all, but how much risk is appropriate?

I know a pleb that walks around with a pre signed transaction on his phone ready to top up the collateral on his loan at any time.

I also don't think pleb hodlers are too exposed yet. The appropriate risk question is very subjective. We're all playing the FAFO game in a way.

Bitcoin is a hell of a journey. I don't think I would have even asked myself these questions without it.