Provocative thought 💣: As someone running a business on the Bitcoin Standard and helping others accept Bitcoin payments, I deal with the challenges of Bitcoin's 4-year cycle daily.

For businesses, this cycle is truly tough to navigate. In good years, you usually speculate on the upside and defer costs. But in bad years, you rush to pay costs quickly to avoid losses. Even healthy businesses with great products can fail if volatility and bad timing collide. Hedging becomes a necessity, adding another layer of complexity for often already complex businesses.

For traders and speculators, Bitcoin's cycle is a blessing. But for businesses, it’s a planning nightmare. While volatility may decrease as Bitcoin matures, it’s still too significant to ignore.

What can we do?

Honestly, not much. Changing Bitcoin’s monetary policy at this stage is nearly impossible. Still, I can’t help but think: Would Bitcoin adoption as money improve if the monetary policy were executed more gradually?

Instead of halving every 210k blocks and causing supply shocks, what if block rewards decreased gradually with each block, based on a similar mathematical formula? 🤔

I know this is controversial. Backlash welcome, but please be kind. 🙏

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Discussion

nothing guarantees that in that scenario there would be less volatility, I think bitcoin volatility comes from being ineslatic in supply. Also some argue that the aggressive emission in the early years helped put bitcoin in the hands of individuals before govs and big corps. I think also the volatility on bull markets, when bitcoin rises a lot is good advertising.