Fed could start cutting rates in March; it’s before I expected; and possibly better too. It seems a perfect storm is forming for the halving event, will we see a decent dip after it takes place?

I’ve always felt that the average cost to produce 1 #Bitcoin is a metric that isn’t given enough merit. It has served as a useful gauge for measuring the floor price of #BTC.

Current estimates put this number at ~$27k, but it’s hard to be certain as this number can range from 100s of dollars to 100,000s of dollars depending on the electricity costs in your region.

All the numbers I find vary slightly, so when I get some free time I plan on cross referencing the hash rate contributions of different regions with the average cost of production in those regions to arrive at my own number, whether it lines up or not. It’s a simple equation, but presumably too tedious to tackle on a work night. KISS!

I’m under the assumption that current estimates are at least a little low, as the U.S., China, and Kazakhstan make up for 78% of total hash rate, and their cost of production is as follows:

United States: $35k

China: $32k

Kazakhstan: $28k

All of these numbers will be doubled as soon as the halving event takes place in a few months.

Who knows what will happen to energy prices over the next decade?!

Moral of the story:

Cost of production only really helps finding the approximate bottom of the bear, and everyone’s numbers vary slightly, at the bottom of the last bear what I found was $20k cost of production, today I found an article saying cost of production in December ’22 was actually $15k (main reason I want my own number(don’t trust: verify)), APPROXIMATE.

Currently, market price is trading at a slight premium compared to cost of production, but it’s still at a steep discount compared to what cost of production will be in a few months.

I’m acting accordingly…

You are a real one if you made it this far 🧡🍻