The reason why nostr isn't more popular at this point is not the narrow focus of the "base community" nor the private/public keys as an identifier nor the so-so working apps. The main reason in my opinion is that there is no over the top censorship going in the centralized (captured) world. The last insident was when EU ordered the hamas attack videos being taken down. Not great, but no covid style craziness. So the network effect isn't broken for twitter just yet.

Nostr ecosystem just doesn't provide 10x better experience to normies and the censorship resistence is not that important right now.

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That and it’s confusing to use.

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"Annoyed, but still not out of my comfort zone" is the main anchor. Don't underestimate the magnetism of a comfort zone.

It’s a mix of all that reasons you have mentioned. But the missing censorship is the only one that’s not recognized by the twitter crowd.