https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-landslide-forecast-betting-odds-2024-election-1977183
Discussion
All this does is just wildly undermines this election analyst’s model credibility - in September, his model was indicating a Harris win by more than 400 electoral votes - which is equally absurd. The betting markets are market by low liquidity, selection bias, foreign participation (ie the financial-political desires of foreign interest may not match those of the American people).
Since you were interested in the Newsweek article - you might be interested this one referencing the same guy - his model now shows that that model-predicted Trump lead has evaporated. So far his model has been something like Trump by 400 electoral votes, swing to Harris by 400 electoral votes electoral votes, back to Trump by 400, now Harris at 273 electoral votes with the margining ping ponging across the 270 line by the minute.
He also notes something that should be quite obvious - the betting markets, by demographic selection bias, feature a GOP slant. This is a rational, logical assessment and it should be possible to deduce this without it being a “political statement”
Anyways, confirmation bias is a hell of drug, my guy…