Yeah but *cycles*. It's nonsense.
(Talking about price of course, not halvings. I guess i opened Pandora's box, efficient markets..) but even other-coiners use this language..
Discussion
it’s true that humans are simple, pattern matching machines
i get annoyed that discovering antibiotics convinced humans they could cure cancer (which tbf we’ve made very good progress on but man the hubris on display there lmao)
I didn't/don't understand the connection to antibiotics but that's a really good point about cancer.
"Cure" does seem like entirely the wrong concept.
I think the book Emperor of Maladies had some good tidbits the amount of gvt money allocated to cancer research soon after the antibiotics miracle happened, it was staggering
The term developed, I think, because the rest of non-Bitcoin crypto also goes in cycles. Many of those folks aren’t really all that aware of the Bitcoin halving, even though the usual pattern is a Bitcoin price spike post-halving, then some of that money rotates into ETH/etc as the Bitcoin run-up loses steam, then as the ETH/etc run-up loses steam the shitcoin/memecoin/garbage pump starts.
Lots of the ETH/memcoin bros don’t really think about Bitcoin’s halving so they just see a cycle, even though it’s driven by Bitcoin.
sort of insane to think the bitcoin supply might just come to define consumer economic cycles
Bitcoin preventing the post-high-interest-rates 2025 recession that everyone is predicting would be kinda wild.
Wait, how would it prevent a recession? I guess it could impose discipline on monetary policy, but wouldn't that result in higher interest rates (tending in direction of 'austerity'), so more recession?
Sudden distribution of cash to a bunch of people could cause a nontrivial bump in spending, offsetting the crash in spending being predicted due to layoffs and other economic headwinds. It was mostly a joke, though, I don’t think there’s that many people with that much bitcoin trying to sell that much bitcoin with that much demand for bitcoin…
can't really blame people for thinking in "cycles" while the pattern remains undefeated