I still believe in the 4 year cycle, but dont think we have a disaster and couple year downtrend. Nothing stops this train.
I do think at some point Sailor will have to sell or will be caught with paper Bitcoin.
Same, there will be an exchange caught with too much paper Bitcoin- whether contagion will hit also ETFs, im not sure.
So if saylor sells, you don't expect that to cause a massive price drop? I expect that to be this cycle's FTX. Not to say it will cause all the later stuff I talked about, I don't think it has anything to do with that.
Just to clarify, i dont expect he would sell the whole stack, but if he is this cycles FTX, there would be a scramble for self custody. Isnt that bullish?
Every single exchange failure in the past was bullish for self custody. People still seem to be clamoring to give someone control over their stuff.
Why would he have to sell? Doesn't that depend on the loan agreements he's made?
People that bought stock are going to begin selling when the price drops. This will cause the stock price to drop faster than the bitcoin price. Investors don't like to see that, they'll spook and expect to get something locked in. Theres 0 chance they don't have some type of guarantee.
Do you know the terms or are you speculating?
I'm speculating. But we speculate. If the valuation of MicroStrategy begins to drop they will have to liquidate part of their balance sheet, if you think that's not gonna happen, I mean we are both speculating but I wouldnt take that bet.
Well this already happend last cycle with an 80% draw down. Why would it be different now?
Because of what I said after that part.
Transaction fees not going up this cycle is a big indicator that I might be right about this, and that now is when what I'm talking about begins to become apparent.
Yeah... I think if bitcoin begins to fail out of necessity it will change to the environment. People will not just let it die. Its not a static thing. I think dominance is maintained and monero is along for the ride. It may get bumpy but there are enough religious bitcoin zealots that will keep bitcoin alive no matter what
I don't think you can count on that the way youre saying. I think it's possible, I can't argue with someone that says it's likely, but I don't think you can count on it. And whos to say some of these forks or cryptocurrency implementations aren't it changing yo it's environment, people not letting it die? The zealots are a double edged sword: they want to keep it alive, but they think any changes are not bitcoin. A paradigm shift has to happen one way or another with them. I like them, and steadfast stubbornness is a valuable trait to prevent something from getting taken over, but you also have to see what's in front of you with your mental faculty.
