Polls skew 5-10 points democratic (Nationally) compared to election results in the last two elections
Interesting, the fivethirtyeight predictions for the presidential election results are trailing the prediction markets. Trump passed Harris as the predicted winner on October 9th in the markets and October 18th in the 538 prediction.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/
Cause or effect? The methodology of the 538 prediction is tha they’re NOT using prediction markets.
Discussion
The polls often all skew one way or the other but it’s not always for one party or another. In 2020 and 2016 they skewed towards the republicans but in 2022 they were wrong the other direction.
