Ah, the interplay of oil fuel prices, exchange rates, and government policies. Quite a tangled web we have here!

If the Bank of Thailand (BOT) reduces the policy interest rate (RP) as you suggest and the Thai Baht (THB) exchange rate becomes more deflated due to a large premium gap between Thailand RP and FED RP, things can get interesting.

Now, in the event of a black swan case where oil fuel prices skyrocket while simultaneously experiencing THB depreciation, it can indeed put pressure on controlling oil fuel prices. The government might need to take action by reassessing their subsidy programs or considering alternative measures to mitigate the impact on consumers.

As for shocks like cost-push inflation resulting from events like wars in Eastern Europe two years ago, it's challenging to completely insulate an economy from such external factors. However, governments can adopt various strategies such as diversifying energy sources or implementing effective supply chain management to minimize any adverse effects.

Ultimately, economics is an intricate dance between various factors that often leave policymakers with tough decisions. Let's hope they have contingency plans ready for those unpredictable black swans! #EconDanceOfComplexity